Presented at the 2nd International Symposium on Innovative Approaches in Scientific Studies (ISAS2018-Winter), Samsun, Turkey, Nov 30, 2018

SETSCI Conference Proceedings, 2018, 3, Page (s): 432-436 , https://doi.org/

Published Date: 31 December 2018    | 521     11

Trend analysis of precipitation play a significant role in the efficient water resources management, especially in arid
and semi-arid regions. In this study, 48 years-long (1970-2017) annual precipitation data monitored at nine selected stations
(Mardin, Adıyaman, Batman, Diyarbakır, Siirt, Şırnak, Gaziantep, Kilis and Şanlıurfa) in the Southeastern Anatolia Region,
Turkey were investigated by using the Innovative Şen Metod (ISM) and Mann-Kendall trend test (MK). The ISM has nonparametric basis without any restrictive assumption, moreover, its application is rather simple when compared with the other
trend identification methods. Since the significance test is a crucial factor to identify the possible trends scientifically, the
results were statistical tested at the 5% significance level in MK and in accordance with the proposed approach presented by
Şen. The result revealed that the trend of annual precipitation was decreasing only in Mardin (Z = -2.12) with respect to both
MK test. This result also approved by the ISM. Considering the other eight provinces, the ISM describe no trend at Batman,
Diyarbakır and Kilis, increasing trend at Gaziantep, Adıyaman and Şırnak, and decreasing trend at Siirt and Şanlıurfa. It is
concluded that the innovative method (ISM) has potential to present the monotonic and non-monotonic trends in graphical
format, and a valuable method that avoids the assumptions such as independent structure of the time series, type of probability
distribution function and length of the data.  

Keywords - Innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Precipitation, Southeastern Anatolia Region, Turkey

[1] L. Wang, Y. Chen, Y. Niu, G. Salazar, W. Gon, “Analysis of atmospheric turbidity in clear skies at Wuhan, Central China”. J. Earth Sci, 28 (4), 729–738, 2017.
[2] A.M. Mohorji, Z. Şen, M. Almazroui,“ Trend Analyses Revision and Global Monthly Temperature Innovative Multi-Duration Analysis”. Earth Syst Environ, 1 (9), 2017.
[3] H.B. Abarghouei, M.A.A. Zarch, M.T. Dastorani, M.F. Zarch, “The survey of climatic drought trend in Iran”. Stoch Env Res Risk A, 25(6), 851–863, 2011.
[4] H. Tao, K. Fredric, C.Men, J. Zhao, “Trends in extreme temperature indices in the Poyang Lake Basin, China”. Stoch Env Res Risk A,28(6), 1543–1553, 2014.
[5] C. Onyutha, “Identification of sub-trends from hydro-meteorological series”. Stoch Env Res Risk A, 30 (1), 189-205, 2015.
[6] G. Zhao, E. Li, X. Mu, Z. Wen, S. Rayburg, P. Tian, “Changing trends and regime shift of streamflow in the Yellow River basin”. Stoch Env Res Risk A, 29(5), 1331–1343, 2015.
[7] A. Kalra, T.C. Piechota, R. Davies, G.A. Tootle, “Changes in U.S. streamflow and western U.S. snowpack”. J Hydrol Eng, 13, 156–163, 2008.
[8] H.B. Mann, “Nonparametric tests against trend”, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.
[9] M.G. Kendall, “Rank correlation methods”, Oxford Univ Press, New York, 1975.
[10] S. Yue, P. Pilon, G. Cavadia, “Corrigendum to ‘Power of the MannKendall and Spearman’s Rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series”. J. Hydrol, 259(1–4), 254–271, 2002.
[11] P.K. Sen, “Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau”. J Am Stat Assoc, 63, 1379–1389, 1978.
[12] T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, “Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Trend in Calabria (Southern Italy) through the Application of Statistical and Graphical Techniques”. Proceedings, 2, 629, 2018.
[13] Z. Şen, “Innovative trend significance test and applications”. Theor Appl Climatol, 127 (3-4), 939-947, 2017.
[14] Z. Şen, “Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology”. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17 (9), 1042-1046, 2012.
[15] T. Haktanir, H. Citakoglu, “Trend, independence, stationarity, and homogeneity tests on maximum rainfall series of standard durations recorded in Turkey”. J Hydrol Eng, 19, 501–509, 2014.
[16] A. Öztopal, Z. Şen, “Innovative Trend Methodology Applications to Precipitation Records in Turkey”. Water Resour Manage, 31 (3), 727-737, 2017.
[17] GAP (Southeastern Anatolia Project Regional Development Administration) (2018): Latest stage in GAP. – Retrieved from:http://www.gap.gov.tr/gap-ta-son-durum-sayfa-32.html#
[18] M. Gedefaw, D. Yan, H. Wang, T. Qin, A. Girma, A. Abiyu, D. Batsuren, “Innovative Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia”. Atmosphere, 9, 326, 2018.
[19] Y. Chen, Y. Guan, G. Shao, D. Zhang, “Investigating Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin withWavelet Analysis and the Mann-Kendall Test”. Water, 8, 77, 2016.
[20] Ü.G. Bacanlı, “Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in the Aegean region, Turkey”. Meteorological Applications, 24, 239-249, 2017.
[21] İ. Dabanlı, Z. Şen, M.Ö Yeleğen, E. Şişman, B. Selek, Y.S. Güçlü, “Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method”. Water Resour Manage, 30 (5), 5193-5203, 2016.
[22] M. Ay, S. Özyıldırım, “Trend Analysis of Monthly Total Rainfall and Monthly Mean Air Temperature Variables of Yozgat in Turkey”.
Çukurova University Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, 32 (2), 65-75, 2017.